Forecasting December’s Election Encore

Election Day is romanticized in newsrooms across the country: the privilege to cover the events of a day where individuals wield influence over a political system that more often makes participation feel futile. Well, lucky us — we get to do it all again Dec. 9 in Albuquerque.  

That’s because incumbent Mayor Tim Keller failed to reach the 50% threshold that would have sealed his bid for a third term on Election Night. But without an absolute majority, the city charter requires the top two candidates to face off at a later date. The two candidates this year: Keller and former public safety official turned weed mogul Darren White. 

One thing that can dull the shine of Election Day is low voter turnout. This year, just over 25% of eligible voters statewide cast a ballot. That’s nothing to sneeze at for a local election year, especially if you zoom in to Bernalillo County, where more than 34% of voters turned out. That’s where voters will once again be called to the polls in December.  

If you do a cursory sweep of stories looking ahead to next month’s runoff, you’ll probably see predictions of low turnout, citing the city’s previous runoff election in 2023 when just 15% of registered voters came out, according to the Albuquerque Journal. But it’s important to note that runoff was for a single city council seat. In 2021, 20% of voters cast a runoff ballot. And in 2017, the last time a mayoral race was included on a runoff, nearly 29% of voters turned out. That’s about the same number who voted in that year’s general election.  

Reaching a number like that again shouldn’t be hard after the two remaining candidates spend the next month whipping voters into a frenzy. During a roundtable election postmortem on the show this week, KUNM News Director Megan Kamerick told Nash Jones she expects the encore campaign season to turn “pugilistic,” an approach Mayor Keller hasn’t needed to employ in pervious runs for office. But after White’s 31% performance on Tuesday and the groundswell of Burqueños upset over a perception of rising crime, Keller might be forced to go on the offensive.  

But will that be enough to compel a similar percentage of people to vote again in a few weeks? UNM Adjunct Political Science Professor Dr. Eric Griego isn’t so sure, pointing to political newcomer Alex Uballez as a turnout driver in the regular election. Uballez significantly outperformed his polling numbers, finishing third with 19% of the vote. In the same discussion with Kamerick and Griego, Daily Lobo Editor in Chief Jaden McKelvey-Francis repeatedly mentioned Uballez as the candidate who connected most with young voters who hadn’t participated in previous elections. Now it’s up to Keller to convince those same young people he deserves their vote in December.  

Whatever happens, we’ll be watching closely to bring Albuquerque voters everything they need to know before they’re once again given the power to choose the direction of their city.