{"id":12805,"date":"2018-04-13T09:13:00","date_gmt":"2018-04-13T16:13:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newmexicopbs.org\/productions\/newmexicoinfocus\/?p=12805"},"modified":"2020-06-02T09:47:50","modified_gmt":"2020-06-02T16:47:50","slug":"public-should-be-ready-for-the-rio-grandes-bad-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newmexicopbs.org\/productions\/newmexicoinfocus\/public-should-be-ready-for-the-rio-grandes-bad-year\/","title":{"rendered":"Public should be ready for the Rio Grande\u2019s bad year"},"content":{"rendered":"

By: Laura Paskus<\/p>\n

As high winds whipped dust, Siberian elm seeds and recycling bins around Albuquerque Thursday afternoon, dozens of people filed into the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation\u2019s Albuquerque office to hear the agency\u2019s 2018 forecast for the Rio Grande.<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019ll be the bearer of bad news,\u201d said Reclamation\u2019s Albuquerque Area Manager Jennifer Faler. \u201cThis is the most extreme shift we\u2019ve had from one operating plan meeting to another.\u201d<\/p>\n

Last year at this time, snowmelt was pouring down the river, flooding riparian restoration projects, filling out farm fields and even pressing against levees<\/a>. This year, the lack of snowpack throughout the watershed\u2019s mountain ranges has left the Rio Grande low and slow\u2014and dry for 14 miles south of Socorro. Currently, the river is dry through the Bosque del Apache National Wildlife Refuge.<\/p>\n

Related story:<\/em><\/strong> It\u2019s only April and a stretch of the Rio Grande has already dried<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s fortunate we have those dams and reservoirs up there,\u201d Faler said, referring to reservoirs in northern New Mexico that store water for the Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District and the Albuquerque-Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority. \u201cThat\u2019s why we have them,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

But later this summer, the conservancy district\u2019s water storage is expected to run out, as is Reclamation\u2019s supplemental water. That refers to water the federal agency leases to boost flows in the river and protect endangered species like the Rio Grande Silvery Minnow.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe do expect to see drying in the Albuquerque reach this year,\u201d Faler said, of the stretch of the Rio Grande that runs through the state\u2019s largest city.<\/p>\n

\u201cAnd misery loves company,\u201d she said. \u201cOn the Pecos [River], we\u2019re expecting zero runoff from snowmelt into the reservoirs this year.\u201d<\/p>\n

In difficult times, people work together better, she said, adding, \u201cWe expect a ton of cooperation this year.\u201d<\/p>\n

During his presentation of the 2018 operating plan for the Rio Grande, which is compiled each year by Reclamation and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, hydrologist Ed Kandl offered additional details.<\/p>\n

In addition to the news about the conservancy district\u2019s stored water, and Reclamation\u2019s supplemental water, running out, Kandl said New Mexico will likely enter into what\u2019s called Article 7 conditions on the Rio Grande by May.<\/p>\n

Under the Rio Grande Compact\u2014the agreement under which Colorado, New Mexico and Texas share the river\u2019s water\u2014New Mexico is not allowed to store water in upstream reservoirs if Rio Grande Project storage is less than 400,000 acre feet in Elephant Butte and Caballo reservoirs. Reclamation\u2019s Rio Grande Project supplies water to Texas, and also farmers in southern New Mexico.<\/p>\n

Kandl shared slides forecasting flows along the Rio Grande based on the winter\u2019s snowpack analysis. Of the Embudo gage<\/a> in northern New Mexico, he said, \u201cWe\u2019ll be flirting with 100 cfs throughout most of the year.\u201d \u00a0Already this year, that stretch of the river has been running at less than half what it normally does.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

For perspective’s sake: water flows at the Embudo gage on the Rio Grande in northern New Mexico from April 2000 through April 2018. During that entire 18-year period, only occasionally dipped as low as 100 cfs.<\/p><\/div>\n

The \u201cscariest\u201d one, Kandl said, is the 2018 flows for the Rio Grande at the Central Avenue Bridge in Albuquerque, where the river will likely dry this spring and summer.<\/p>\n

Kandl and Faler both said area residents should be prepared to see the dry riverbed. \u201cThe worst part is still coming,\u201d Kandl said, \u201cThough, maybe we\u2019ll have a good monsoon.\u201d<\/p>\n

Over the next several months, Reclamation will also begin working with its stakeholders to update a basin-wide study of the impacts of climate change on the Upper Rio Grande.<\/p>\n

That 2013 assessment<\/a> looked at the potential impacts of additional temperature increases of 4 to 6 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the 21st century. Their study showed that flows on the Rio Grande will likely decrease by about a third, and flows in tributaries that supply San Juan-Chama water to the system will decrease by about one-quarter. In addition, snow will melt earlier and summertime flows will decrease. And as the month-to-month and yearly variability of flows increase, the \u201cfrequency, intensity and duration of both droughts and floods are protected to increase.\u201d<\/p>\n

The one \u201cbright spot,\u201d according to Reclamation officials on Thursday, is for rafters and recreationists on the Chama River. Because the agency will be releasing water from upstream reservoirs, the river\u2019s flows will be good for rafting and kayaking.<\/p>\n

The conservancy district\u2019s hydrologist, David Gensler, offered characteristically optimistic comments at the end of the meeting and reassured people things will be okay. \u201cOver almost 20 years,\u201d he said, \u201cwe\u2019ve all learned how to work really well together and use all our resources.\u201d<\/p>\n

This story originally appeared on New Mexico Political Report\u00a0<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

Related Stories:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Change up: SCOTUS changes special master on Rio Grande water battle\u00a0<\/em><\/a>
\nU.S. Supreme Court issues opinion on Texas v. New Mexico & Colorado
\n<\/em><\/a>Grim forecast for the Rio Grande has water managers, conservationists concerned<\/em><\/a>
\nRecord low snowpack foretells troubling spring, summer<\/em><\/a>
\nIn Deep Water: U.S. Supreme Court to decide how states share the drying Rio Grande, and New Mexico could lose big<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By: Laura Paskus As high winds whipped dust, Siberian elm seeds and recycling bins around Albuquerque Thursday afternoon, dozens of people filed into the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation\u2019s Albuquerque office to hear the agency\u2019s 2018 forecast for the Rio Grande. \u201cI\u2019ll be the bearer of bad news,\u201d said Reclamation\u2019s Albuquerque Area Manager Jennifer Faler. \u201cThis…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":12806,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[318,1257],"tags":[422,58,72,579,113,738,1267,861,1901,1902,1786,208],"class_list":["post-12805","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-environment-2","category-our-land","tag-climate-change","tag-drought","tag-environment","tag-environmental","tag-laura-paskus","tag-new-mexico","tag-our-land","tag-rio-grande","tag-river","tag-snowmelt","tag-snowpack","tag-water"],"yoast_head":"\nPublic should be ready for the Rio Grande\u2019s bad year - 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